Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the domestic market has significantly declined since July. On July 17th, the rare earth index was 355 points, a decrease of 1 point from the previous day, a decrease of 64.75% from the highest point of 1,007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 31.00% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

The prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal in China had continued to decline. As of the 18th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.65 million RMB/ton, a decrease of 10.8%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.65 million RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.34% in price; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.25 million RMB/ton, with a price trend decline of 7.98%; The domestic price of terbium series had decreased, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 5.175 million RMB/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 6.4 million RMB/ton.

Analysis review

In July, the price trend of heavy rare earth metals in the market declined significantly. Due to weak terminal demand, market activity gradually cooled down, and trading remained cautious. The metal market had remained relatively calm, with some metal merchants actively lowering prices to attract buyers. In Jiangxi and Guangxi regions, the operating rates of some separated enterprises had remained low, and the production of heavy rare earths had not changed much; In addition, some magnetic material companies were not actively purchasing, resulting in a significant decline in the price trend of heavy rare earths.

In June 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.003 million and 1.049 million respectively, an increase of 28.1% and 30.1% year-on-year. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.929 million and 4.944 million respectively, an increase of 30.1% and 32% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, providing support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China's rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments released the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, but the growth rate had slowed down. In addition, China's rare earth export volume in June 2024 was 4,828.7 tons, a decrease of 22.3% from May's export volume of 6,217 tons. The reduction in exports had to some extent suppressed the domestic rare earth market prices, and the prices of heavy rare earths continued to decline.

Market outlook

Recently, downstream magnetic material companies had not been actively ordering, with quiet inquiries and strong bearish sentiment in the market. It is expected that the market prices of heavy rare earths will continue to decline in the short term.

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