Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market had been fluctuating downward since July. On July 18th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5,931 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.77% from the beginning of the month. Under the weakening of both costs and demand, the PTA price trend was weak.

Analysis review

Looking at the future, based on its own supply situation, Zhongtai Petrochemical's 1.2 million ton PTA plant started heating up on July 11th, with a load of 70%. Pengwei Petrochemical's annual production of 900,000 tons of PTA plant was temporarily shut down and was scheduled to restart on July 20th. The operating rate of the PTA industry in China was around 84%, and some units will still restart in the later stage. However, the PTA maintenance plan was relatively few, and the liquidity may be sufficient after the supply returns, resulting in significant pressure on the accumulated inventory.

The international crude oil market stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 82.85 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 85.08 US dollars per barrel. In the short term, the game between crude oil supply and demand continues to play a role. Due to the impact of geopolitical situation and OPEC's production control, the supply side had certain support, and oil prices may maintain a range oscillation pattern.

In the PX market, domestic PX load had returned to a high level, overseas facilities had been restarted one after another, and Asian PX production had returned to its highest level since the beginning of this year. It is expected that there may be further upward momentum in the future. But the recovery of downstream PTA supply is lower than expected, and PX prices will continue to be under pressure.

Downstream mainstream polyester factories had gradually begun to implement production cuts, and the industry's operating capacity had dropped below 83%, further boosting the determination to maintain fixed prices. The low season of terminal demand, coupled with weak orders and high temperatures, had led to a continued decline in the operating rate of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang to around 65%. Downstream demand for PTA was still weak due to low intentions to replenish inventory.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that further attention needs to be paid to the trend of crude oil, whether PTA has unplanned maintenance, and the implementation of downstream polyester production cuts.

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