Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market continued to decline. On March 9, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1,968 RMB/ ton. As of March 18, the average price of the domestic methanol market was ,1797 RMB/ ton, down 8.41%. The price fell 9.33% month on month and 25.72% year on year.
Market Analysis
Products: the domestic methanol market has maintained a weak trend overall, and prices in some regions have continued to decline. In terms of the mainland market, the demand side is light, the supply-demand contradiction is dependent on each other, and the new price decline in the northwest is conducted, which leads to a continued decline in some parts of the mainland. In terms of port market, it is mainly characterized by narrow amplitude fluctuation in the day, but the overall amplitude is not large. It is reported that the basis is slightly stronger, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the market dynamics of crude oil in the short term.
Freight: the freight of methanol market recently fell. Affected by the bad news, the middle and lower reaches are now more cautious in receiving goods. The reference quotation of freight from north line to Lubei is 100-120 RMB/ ton, from south line to Lubei is 120-150 RMB/ ton; the reference quotation of freight from Guanzhong to Lubei is 80-120 RMB/ ton, from Guanzhong to Lunan is 90 RMB/ ton; the reference quotation of freight from Shanxi to Lubei is 100-110 RMB/ ton, from Ningxia to Lubei 160 RMB/ ton.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market has been in a low vibration. Some formaldehyde enterprises reported lower prices, the upstream methanol market was lower, the cost aspect continued to explore, some formaldehyde enterprises purchased a small amount, the downstream market demand follow-up was limited, and the actual single transaction was light.
Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is optimistic. Affected by the failure of Jiangsu Thorpe's device, it eased the market's bearish mentality, and the low-end suppliers as a whole offered to increase, intending to pull up the market, driving the transaction price of East China market up slightly. However, the start-up of the market terminal industry continues to be low, the substantial digestion of acetic acid is limited, and the market is not well supported. It is expected that the acetic acid market will stabilize after the rise.
DME: at present, the domestic market of DME is not good, and the price is low. At present, the reference price of Henan production area is 2,520-2,750 RMB/ ton. At present, the market is not well supported; the price of civil gas market is still wide down, which has a serious impact on the DME market. It is expected that the short-term trade wait-and-see mood is still strong, and the price is weak.
Market Forecast
SunSirs’ point of view: on the positive side, at present, the profits of enterprises are generally poor, and there is a certain cost support under partial losses. On the negative side, the supply side: some of the early-stage shutdown/ load reduction devices have been recovered, and the supply side is relatively abundant at present; on the downstream side, the overall receiving atmosphere in the downstream is not good, some downstream products are slow to resume work, and local demand side is hard to boost in a short term; on the macro side, the European and American stock markets have plummeted again, and the superimposed crude oil has dropped to about $28/ barrel. The methanol analysts of SunSirs predict that the short-term methanol market will continue to weaken with a high probability, and the short-term fundamentals are difficult to improve.
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