According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 15th to 19th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2,573 RMB/ton to 2,500 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 2.85% during the period, a month on month decline of 1.19%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.13%. The domestic methanol market has fallen from a high level, and the overall downstream demand has remained weak in recent times. Traders hold sufficient supply of goods.
As of the close on July 19th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,519 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,528 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,491 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,493 RMB/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 32 RMB/ton or 1.27% from the previous trading day's settlement, with a trading volume of 574,613 lots and a position of 766,640 lots. The daily increase was 34,997.
In terms of cost, most coal mines in the production area are currently maintaining normal production in the middle of the month, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level remains stable. The recent upward trend in port prices has been temporarily suspended, and downstream terminal inventories are high. Many traders are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards market resources, and most traders are cautious in their purchasing pace. There are fewer vehicles transporting to the mine, and coal mines are adjusting their pithead prices narrowly based on their own sales situation, with an overall focus on stability. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream MTBE: Tianli High tech has plans to start production, and MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream formaldehyde: Henan Lankao formaldehyde plant has increased its load, Liuyang Jinggang plant has restarted, and formaldehyde demand has increased; Downstream chlorides: Mainstream factories in Shandong have increased demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Xinlianxin, Jiujiang Xinlianxin, Lankaohuitong, and Guizhou Tianfu units have started operation, resulting in an increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: After reducing the load of Tianjian, the maintenance and operation gradually decreased, and the demand for acetic acid decreased. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, maintenance of Inner Mongolia Chifeng BoRMB, Shaanxi Changqing, Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), and Yunnan Pioneer Equipment; Inner Mongolia's new Olympic plant reduces production; Guizhou Tianfu, Xufeng HeRMB, and Shaanxi Shenmu installations have been restored. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on July 18th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $350.00- $351.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 104.00-105.00 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 322.75-323.75 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, the price of raw coal is slightly insufficient to drive methanol, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Although traditional downstream demand has increased, the magnitude is still limited. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly consolidate weakly.
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