Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of soda ash had slightly decreased this week. On July 19th, the average market price of soda ash was 1,936 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared to the price of 1,956 RMB/ton on July 12th, and a decrease of 3.01% compared to the beginning of the month.

On July 19th, the light soda ash commodity index was 100.31 points, unchanged from the previous day, a decrease of 46.95% from the cycle's highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 58.84% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present).

Analysis review

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the soda ash market had been consolidating and declining this week. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate had slightly decreased this week, but it was still at a high level. The production of soda ash was high, and the market inventory was sufficient; On the demand side, the terminal market continued to operate weakly, downstream enthusiasm was not high, and mainly followed up on demand. The market trading atmosphere was weak, and enterprise shipments were limited. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash fluctuated slightly and decreased. As of July 19th, the price of soda ash in East China remained stable, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1,900-2,150 RMB/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China remained stable, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1,750-2,000 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, glass prices continued to decline. As of July 19th, the market average price was 17.84 RMB/square meter, a decrease of 3.25% compared to the market average price of 18.44 RMB/square meter on July 12th. Downstream demand for glass was weak, with on-demand procurement leading to a weak glass price trend.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 29th week of 2024 (7.15-7.19), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline were: calcium carbide (-1.84%), light soda ash (-1.02%), baking soda (-0.90%), and PVC (-0.61%).

Market outlook

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of soda ash was in a stalemate and consolidation, with a high operating rate of spot alkali plants and sufficient market supply. Downstream demand was weak, and mostly replenished on demand. Soda ash inventory was destocking averagely, and it is expected that soda ash will operate to be weaker in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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