According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade has slightly decreased last week, with an average price of 7,192 RMB/ton as of July 12th.
Raw material market: Recently, international oil prices have rebounded. As of the close on July 18th, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $82.82 per barrel, a decrease of 0.04%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for September delivery closed at $85.11 per barrel, an increase of 0.04%. The decline in crude oil and raw material prices during the week, insufficient support for PET costs, and no significant improvement in on-site trading have also created resistance to the continued upward trend of the PET market. In terms of PTA, PTA prices fell last week, and currently the mainstream PTA quotation is around 5,800-5,900 RMB/ton for self pickup. As the operating rate rebounds and PTA fundamentals decline, it is expected that prices will remain volatile next week.
After entering the second half of the year, facing the increasing losses in the industry, PET factories have begun to take measures to reduce production and maintain prices, and plans to put new production capacity into operation may also be delayed. Recently, a 150,000 ton polyester bottle chip device in East China has been shut down for maintenance, and there are no confirmed questions when driving. Another 250,000 ton polyester bottle slicing device in East China has been converted to slicing. Two sets of 650,000 ton polyester bottle chip devices in Zhejiang have been shut down for maintenance for 45 days.
The third quarter of 2024 coincides with summer vacation, and the peak travel season is driving an increase in travel volume. At the same time, the concert economy and industry conferences have all exploded at an unexpected speed, and it is expected that the number of domestic tourists will increase by about 150% year-on-year in the second half of the year. High frequency personnel turnover drives consumption in the soft drink industry and catering industry. In addition, the demand for PET sheets and other packaging, oil and seasoning packaging industries will also maintain a stable growth trend. The downstream demand side has also shown relatively optimistic expectations. Especially in the soft drink packaging industry, as the main downstream consumer group of polyester bottle chips, its consumption is expected to continue to grow with the increase of personnel mobility and the recovery of terminal consumption.
In the third quarter of 2024, the national summer vacation will stimulate public travel enthusiasm, and the tourism market will usher in a comprehensive revival. It is expected that the number of tourists will increase by 150% year-on-year. At the same time, the prosperity of concert economy and industry conferences promotes cultural exchange and economic development. The high-frequency personnel flow has driven the rise of the soft drink and catering industries, which in turn has led to a surge in demand for packaging materials such as PET sheets, resulting in stable growth in the food packaging industry. In the future packaging industry, as the main downstream consumer group of polyester bottle chips, the consumption volume is expected to continue to rise with the prosperity of the market. Despite the continuous reduction in supply and optimistic demand expectations, the polyester bottle chip market is still under pressure, with weak price increases. This is mainly due to multiple factors such as fierce market competition, reduced processing fees, and increased uncertainty in the international market.
The PET analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the future, with the further recovery of downstream consumption and changes in raw material costs, the PET market is expected to form a new price trend. However, in the context of intense supply-demand competition and increased uncertainty in the international market, price fluctuations in the PET market will still be relatively frequent. Therefore, for relevant enterprises and investors, it is particularly important to closely monitor market dynamics and flexibly adjust business strategies.
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