The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 25th, and the retail price of refined oil will soon be lowered. The retail price of refined oil in 2024 has experienced seven upward adjustments, four downward adjustments, and three stranded adjustments. The crude oil change rate remains negative during the cycle, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will encounter a "fifth" downward adjustment.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has declined. As of the 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.59 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.71 per barrel. At the beginning of this cycle, the trend of crude oil has declined. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has eased, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China's crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. As of the 25th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -2.68%, corresponding to a reduction of 145 RMB/ton for gasoline and 140 RMB/ton for diesel. The discounted price decreased by 92# 0.0.11 RMB, 95 # 0.12 RMB, and 0# 0.12 RMB.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has remained low, with an average operating rate of around 50%. Local refineries in China have not yet overcome severe losses, with their main processing profits being meager and refining profits being severely squeezed, resulting in a significant decrease in refinery operating enthusiasm. The supply of refined oil has not changed much, and the demand for gasoline is still acceptable in the near future. Intermediaries can replenish their inventory according to demand, thanks to the stable consumption level in the summer, and the gasoline market is mainly volatile.
In terms of diesel: Recently, the contradiction between diesel supply and demand has emerged, and there has been little change in the diesel market on the supply side. However, diesel demand has declined and is currently in a period of summer, with frequent high temperatures and rainy weather in various regions. The operating rates of outdoor construction units and logistics and transportation oil companies remain low. In addition, due to the impact of the fishing ban, the consumption of diesel market resources is slow, and traders and terminal enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. The imbalance between diesel supply and demand has led to a slight accumulation of inventory. As a result, the diesel market situation has been slightly lower recently.
Looking at the future: Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, OPEC+'s production reduction stance is firm, and the traditional peak season in the United States still holds positive news. Under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has not changed much. The number of summer travelers has increased, and the use of air conditioning in summer has increased. The demand for gasoline is still guaranteed, but as the sales target increases towards the end of the month, gasoline prices may slightly decrease; The demand for diesel is sluggish, with weak supply and demand, and diesel prices are likely to fluctuate downwards.
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