Price trend

This week, the domestic vinyl cyanide market had been operating weakly and steadily. The upstream raw material propylene market first stabilized and then rose, and the cost support was still acceptable. This week, the vinyl cyanide factory followed the spot market with a slight decline, coupled with low downstream demand, and the lack of confidence in the future market, so some transaction prices on the market were biased towards the lower end. However, due to production cost factors, the downward space of the vinyl cyanide market was relatively limited. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation price for self pickup in East China ports was around 9,000 RMB/ton, and the negotiation price for short distance delivery in Shandong market was around 8,900 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic vinyl cyanide plants remained around 83%.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic propylene market had been mainly volatile this week, with the mainstream reference price being 7,100-7,120 RMB/ton. As of July 26th, the 200,000 tons/year polypropylene plant of Jingbo Petrochemical restarted on July 28th, causing loose propylene offers in some areas, which to some extent exacerbated the cautious sentiment of downstream buyers and weakened support for price trends. It is expected that the short-term propylene market prices will operate to be weaker.

Weak demand: The average operating rate of domestic ABS equipment this week was 62.86%, an increase of 3.49% month on month and a decrease of 19.22% year-on-year.

Market outlook

Overall, in the short term, the domestic propylene market may experience a decline from high levels, with average cost support. At the end of the month, vinyl cyanide factories gradually settled accounts, with limited trading activity on the market. However, some factories' offers slightly weakened, and industry players lacked confidence in the future market. Therefore, the short-term vinyl cyanide market is still mainly weakly adjusted, but considering cost factors, the downward space is relatively limited. The expected mainstream negotiated price for self pickup at East China ports is around 8,900 RMB/ton.

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