Aluminum prices dropped to around 19,000 RMB/ton

Aluminum prices continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on July 29, 2024 was 19,140 ,, a decrease of 6.16% from the market average price of 20396.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (July 1).

Analysis review

Macro factors: There were signs of a weakening recession in overseas data, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that businesses expected future growth to slow down, and the labor market continued to be weak. CME showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve's descending order in September has increased to 91.9%, and the expectation of a rate cut in July has fallen through. Domestically, the economic data for the second quarter was released, with a GDP of 4.7%, which was lower than expected.

The supply and demand fundamentals were weak, downstream replenishment was liht, and destocking was not smooth. As of July 29th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major domestic markets was 795,000 tons, which was 33,000 tons higher than the inventory of 762,000 tons on July 1st.

Market outlook

As of July 29th, the price of aluminum ingots had fallen to near the marginal cost, and the upstream raw material side was tight, which provided some support for the price. In the short term, the game between long and short factors is intensifying.

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