According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic spot price of natural rubber has been weakly declining since July. As of July 31, the spot price of natural rubber in China's natural rubber market was around 13,949 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.18% from 14,557 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. Since July, the natural rubber futures market has fluctuated and fallen. At the beginning of the month, the Shanghai rubber 09 contract opened at 14,955 RMB/ton, with a peak of 15,180 RMB/ton during trading. As of July 31st, it closed at 14,300 RMB/ton.

On the one hand, with the arrival of the peak season for rubber cutting, the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas is gradually increasing, and the supply of natural rubber market is expanding. As of July 31st, the price of Thai glue was 63.00 baht/kg, a decrease of 9.35% from the price of 69.50 baht/kg at the beginning of the month; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is 13,400 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.96% from 14,100 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

On the other hand, the slow depletion of natural rubber inventory provides some support for the natural rubber market. On the other hand, after entering July, the speed of Tianjiao's destocking gradually slowed down, and later Tianjiao inventory shifted from destocking to accumulation. As of July 28, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 474,400 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the previous period. Compared to late June, the volume of 511,200 tons decreased by 7.20%.

Since mid July, downstream tire production has been declining, and in the short term, demand is facing some drag from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are relatively cautious. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.4%.

With the gradual increase in domestic and international raw material supply and the decrease in raw material prices, the cost support for natural rubber will weaken; Downstream tire production has declined, and tire companies are cautious about purchasing natural rubber; The speed of removing Tianjiao from the warehouse has slowed down. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to decline at a high level in the short term.

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