According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of PET water bottles has slightly rebounded this month, and the volatile operation shows a certain downward trend. As of July 31st, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7,130 RMB/ton.
Raw material market: On July 30th, Brent crude oil benchmark price was $79.05 per barrel. Compared to $85.26 per barrel at the beginning of this month, it has decreased by -7.28%. The WTI crude oil benchmark price is $74.73 per barrel. Compared to the $81.74 per barrel at the beginning of this month, it has decreased by -8.57%.
The price of ethylene glycol was relatively strong in the first half of July, and then began to decline slightly. Currently, the price is beginning to digest sideways. According to data from SunSirs, as of July 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4640 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.729% compared to the average price of 4,561.67 RMB/ton in the East China market on July 1st. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the driving effect of inventory factors on prices in the early stage is weakening under the expected increase in imports. Currently, inventory levels are relatively low, which provides some support for prices; In terms of demand, downstream polyester is reducing production to maintain prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is weak.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market surged and fell back in July. The market is generally concerned about weak demand for crude oil, and European and American crude oil futures fell to the lowest level in six weeks. The weak fundamentals and downward cost support have dragged down PTA cost support and dragged down market quotes. As of the end of July, the operating rate of the domestic PTA industry was around 82%. In August, there were still many restarts of PTA plants in China, and the utilization rate of PTA production capacity will further improve. The expectation of a rebound in PTA supply is obvious. At present, there is almost no official announcement of the August maintenance plan for PTA large plants, and the implementation of the downstream polyester factory production reduction plan has led to the expectation of weak PTA demand, resulting in inventory accumulation for PTA in August.
On the supply and demand side, some sources of goods are still tight, and there is still some support on the supply side. Holders of goods should be cautious in shipping at low prices.
The PET analyst from SunSirs believes that the current bottle grade PET market is generally stable with small fluctuations, and compared to the raw material side, it shows strong resilience against downturns. It is expected that the market will remain within a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. However, the actual evolution of this pattern will closely depend on the dynamic changes in the raw material market and the implementation of subsequent production equipment maintenance plans. Specifically, fluctuations in raw material prices and the implementation of maintenance plans will become key factors affecting the future trend of the PET market.
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