Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes slightly decreased in July. At the beginning of the month on the 20th, the price of 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,527.5 RMB/ton, which fell to 4,397.5 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.87%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.47%.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials: In July, the price of tube blanks fluctuated and fell, with an average price of 3,400-3,950 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10-80 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month. The production of seamless tube factories had slightly increased, but the speed of outbound shipments from the factory was slow, mainly relying on discounted shipments.

On the demand side: due to the off-season and high temperature weather in the market, terminal demand was weak, and downstream purchasing willingness was significantly weakened. Market trading confidence had been hit hard, and downstream terminals were still mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach. Downstream procurement had been delayed, the speed of social destocking had slowed down, the atmosphere of spot circulation was poor, and the transaction situation was relatively average, mainly consisting of individual orders.

In terms of exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's seamless tube exports in June were 518,600 tons, an increase of 20.55% month on month and 16.28% year-on-year; From January to June, China's cumulative export of seamless tubes was 2.6836 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.47%. In June, China imported 7,800 tons of seamless tubes, a month on month decrease of 17.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; From January to June, China imported a total of 57,700 tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%.

Market outlook

In summary, July is the traditional off-season. Under the influence of high temperature weather, downstream construction sites are not doing well, and traders are not replenishing their inventory. Many merchants are lowering prices to sell in exchange for cash flow. As of July 31st, there was a lot of bearish sentiment in the market, and downstream purchasing sentiment was weak. It is expected that the supply-demand contradiction will deepen. According to the annual comparison chart of SunSirs, it is expected that seamless tube prices will continue to operate weakly in August.

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