Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 29th to August 2nd, the domestic ethyl alcohol price fell from 6,012 RMB/ton to 6,000 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 9.60%. The demand side continued to be sluggish, factory prices were falling to stimulate shipments, downstream purchasing power was limited, and the ethyl alcohol market was running weakly.

Analysis review

In terms of cost, the domestic corn market prices were stable and weaker, and traders' enthusiasm for shipment had increased, gradually accepting sales. However, downstream purchasing attitudes were cautious, maintaining on-demand procurement, and the market volume of goods was not large. There were few purchasing entities in the port, the arrival volume remained low, the demand for loading was not high, and traders were mainly slow to reduce inventory. The cost of ethyl alcohol had bearish factors for the market.

On the supply side, there were significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; The Changxing plant in Zhenjiang will resume production around August 10th; The Guotou Hailun plant would be expected to shut down on August 3rd; There had been no significant changes to the equipment in other factories. The supply of ethyl alcohol provided favorable factors to the market.

Demand side, Baijiu consumption off-season; The purchase volume of anhydrous methyl ethyl ester had declined, mainly due to the reduced load of Jiangsu Sipai EMC; We had not heard of any shutdown plans for the Jinyimong plant in Shandong, and the load of the Jinjiang plant in Taixing had decreased, resulting in a decrease in the utilization rate of EA production capacity. It is expected that the purchase of general grade ethyl alcohol will be reduced. Short term ethyl alcohol demand had bearish factors for the market.

Market outlook

The negative impact of the cost side, coupled with the abundant supply in the market, led to significant overall shipping pressure. The ethyl alcohol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic ethyl alcohol market will be mainly consolidated to be in the short term.

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