On August 6th, the National Grain and Oil Information Center reported that the possibility of a significant drop in soybean meal prices is expected to be small, and there may be a rebound in September.

One is the increased willingness of oil factories to raise prices. Since June, domestic soybean meal prices have continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 550 RMB/ton or 18% in the past two months. Based on the cost of imported soybeans in July and the current prices of soybean meal and soybean oil, domestic oil mills have generally suffered losses of 200-300 RMB/ton in market crushing. Based on the cost of imported soybeans in the new season of the October shipping schedule and the current prices of soybean meal and soybean oil, oil mills still suffer losses of 80-150 RMB/ton in market crushing, indicating an increased willingness to raise prices.

Secondly, the willingness of feed enterprises to stock up has increased. Recently, with the significant drop in soybean meal prices, the market's bearish sentiment has loosened. On the one hand, there are concerns that when the source of imported soybeans shifts to the United States in September and October, there will be a shortage of domestic soybean supply; On the other hand, during the critical period of soybean growth in August, the risk of fluctuations in soybean and domestic soybean meal prices has intensified. Some companies are considering increasing their inventory in the near future. It is expected that soybean meal prices will continue to be weak in August, but the possibility of a significant decline is small. The 2409 contract may fluctuate around 3,000 RMB/ton. In September, with a decrease in imported soybeans and a decrease in the operating rate of oil plants, soybean meal inventory may gradually decline, and soybean meal prices may rebound at that time.

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