According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of PET water bottles has fallen last week, and the volatile operation shows a certain downward trend. As of August 11th, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7,127 RMB/ton.
Raw material market: Although concerns about economic recession have eased in the raw material market, the possibility of larger scale conflicts in the Middle East has cast a shadow of uncertainty on the market. This risk factor continues to affect the stability of production and transportation, thereby driving international oil prices up for the fourth consecutive trading day. Specifically, as of the end of trading on August 9th, the WTI crude oil futures due in September 2024 rose by $0.65 to close at $76.84 per barrel, recording a 0.85% increase; During the same period, Brent crude oil futures (delivered in October 2024) also rose by $0.50, closing at $79.66 per barrel, an increase of 0.63%. The crude oil futures in the Chinese market (SC main contract 2409) also performed positively, closing up 3.9 RMB/barrel from the previous trading day to 559.3 RMB/barrel.
However, it is worth noting that despite the rebound in the crude oil market, the performance of the polyester raw material market appears relatively weak. Especially PTA, there was a significant downward trend last week, with its main contract price hitting a low of 5,468 RMB, a new low since July 2023. The main reasons for the decline in PTA prices this time can be attributed to two aspects: firstly, the weak macroeconomic environment and the downward trend of cost side prices such as crude oil have had a drag effect on PTA prices; Secondly, the imbalance of supply and demand within the PTA market, especially the increase in supply pressure, has further intensified the downward pressure on its prices.
The PET analyst from SunSirs believes that there is currently a lack of confidence in the bottle grade PET market, and downstream PET suppliers are continuing to replenish at low prices. PET prices are still slightly declining. In the short term, it is expected that the market will maintain a weak oscillation within a narrow range. Specifically, fluctuations in raw material prices and the implementation of maintenance plans will become key factors affecting the future trend of the PET market.
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