Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Sino-Trade, from August 5 to 9, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market fell from 10,033 RMB/ton to 9,900 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.33% within the period, a month-on-month decrease of 1.98% and a year-on-year increase of 2.21%. The price of raw material pure benzene has been reduced, and the cost side lacks support. Downstream demand is weak, the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak and downward, and the transaction center of gravity is low.

Analysis review

Comparison chart of the price trend of SunSirs pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone:

Cost side:

Raw material pure benzene: The price of pure benzene has fallen recently. The price on August 1 was 8,438 RMB/ton; the price on August 9 was 8,431 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 8.48% from the same period last year. In the cost structure of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone. In the short term, the cost side of cyclohexanone is affected by negative factors.

Supply side:

According to the statistics of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic cyclohexanone operating load is more than 70%. The main production enterprises, Shijiazhuang Coking, Yangmei Fengxi, Shandong Hongda, Jining Zhongyin, Shandong Haili, and Jiangsu Haili, are undergoing equipment maintenance, and the product supply is limited. This week, the operating load of cyclohexanone increased by 1.8% compared with last week. The weekly output is about 120,000 tons, which is an increase from last week.

Demand side:

Cyclohexanone units are mainly used for downstream caprolactam production, which is one of the most important downstream of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market continues to decline. The price of upstream pure benzene has continued to weaken recently, and the main listing has been continuously lowered, which has a negative impact on the cost side. Downstream polymerization plants lack confidence and the pace of raw material procurement has slowed down. In addition, as some units on the caprolactam supply side have returned to normal, the tight supply situation in the early stage has eased, and the center of gravity of market trading prices has gradually declined. The demand side of cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

Market outlook

Analysts of cyclohexanone from SunSirs believe that the market price of cyclohexanone has dropped recently. The current lack of cost support and slowdown in terminal demand have led to a downward trend in the market price of cyclohexanone. It is expected that the market price of cyclohexanone will be mainly weak and consolidated in the short term.

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