According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since August, the rebound of domestic soybean meal market has been limited, with continued weak decline as the main trend. The market continues to bottom out, with the average market price falling below the 3,000 RMB mark and an overall decline of over 3%. On August 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,020 RMB/ton. On August 13th, the average market price of soybean meal was 2,924 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.18%.
Supply side: In July 2024, China's soybean imports were 9.853 million tons, a decrease of 11.3% compared to the previous month. The import volume of soybeans in China from January to July was 58.333 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared to the same period last year. The quantity of imported soybeans in July has declined and remains at a high level. Guoliang expects to import 8 million tons and 7.6 million tons of soybeans to the port in August and September, respectively. The supply of imported soybeans remains loose, limiting the upward trend of soybean meal prices.
Inventory: According to the soybean meal inventory statistics of SunSirs, the soybean meal inventory continued to decline from January to April 2024. On the week of April 5th, the soybean meal inventory was at its lowest point of the year, only 300,000 tons. Starting from mid April, soybean meal inventory showed a rebound trend. From May to July, soybean meal continued to accumulate and inventory levels continued to rise, exceeding 1 million tons. Starting from August, soybean meal inventory reached a new high, and as of the week of August 9th, soybean meal inventory had approached 1.5 million tons. The inventory pressure has doubled, and the soybean meal market continues to decline.
Futures: Since August, the growth of US beans has been good, with a higher than expected planting rate. USDA reports have repeatedly broken records for US bean production estimates, and the US bean market has continued to decline in the external market. Domestic bean futures have also fallen, mainly due to fluctuations in soybean meal prices. On August 14th, the main contract for soybean meal received 2,857 RMB/ton, a decrease of 72 RMB/ton. The futures market continues to suppress, and the spot market for soybean meal remains sluggish.
Requirement: Starting from August, as temperatures rise and rainfall increases, the demand for feed in the terminal breeding industry continues to decline, and the amount of soybean meal purchased by feed factories is limited. The continuous decline in the soybean meal market has led to a lack of confidence in the soybean meal market among end-users, resulting in on-demand purchases. As a result, soybean meal transactions have been sluggish and demand has been poor, leading to continuous record lows in the market.
The agricultural product analyst of SunSirs believes that after mid August, as the weather turns cooler, the demand for soybean meal terminal feed will gradually recover. Due to the current low price of soybean meal, the downward space in the future is limited, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize. In September, the rigid demand for feed increased, and the soybean meal market may experience a bottoming out rebound.
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