Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel has slightly decreased this week. As of August 16th, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 12,728.57 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.56% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 9.63%.

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the prices of nickel and stainless steel were basically similar. The price change of stainless steel was relatively flat.

Analysis review

This week, the total inventory of stainless steel was 108.49 tons, a decrease of 0.47% compared to last week. Among them, cold-rolled inventory decreased while hot-rolled inventory increased.

Upstream: Due to the recent increase in delivery resources from Norway and Sumitomo, the overall transaction of refined nickel spot goods has been poor, resulting in a downward trend of various brands' spot price premiums. The overall mining quotes in the Philippines remained firm, while the resource supply in the Indonesian nickel ore market remained tight. The benchmark price for domestic trade in Indonesia has risen, and it is expected that nickel iron prices will continue to be stronger in the short term.

From the supply side, there were not many arrivals in the market, and spot prices had rebounded within the week. Some low-priced early orders had gradually been picked up, but downstream procurement was still cautious, and the actual order volume was limited. Therefore, the national stainless steel social inventory in this period showed a narrow downward trend. Steel mills had high expectations for the traditional peak consumption season of gold September and silver October, and there is an increase in production scheduling in August.

Import and export: In July 2024, China exported 7.827 million tons of steel, a decrease of 918,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 10.5% compared to the previous month; From January to July, the cumulative export of steel reached 61.227 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. In July, China imported 505,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 12.2% compared to the previous month; From January to July, the cumulative import of steel reached 4.122 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%.

On the demand side, the recent decline in Qing Shan market prices and spot prices had resulted in a weak downstream trading atmosphere, suppressing upward price potential.

Market outlook

Overall, although the expectation of recession slowed down, demand has not shown signs of improvement, and the social inventory was at a high level, which suppressed prices. However, the support of nickel iron prices on the cost side was strong, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term.

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