Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market fluctuated and adjusted to be weaker this week (August 12-16). The average spot price of PTA in East China was 5,566 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, the main supplier announced a maintenance plan for the PTA plant, which, combined with the rise in crude oil prices, boosted the PTA market. But as crude oil fell and demand remained weak, PTA prices fell. With the rebound of crude oil on Friday, PTA prices showed a slight rebound.

Analysis review

In terms of supply, attention should be paid to the load increase of Hanbang Petrochemical's 2.2 million ton PTA plant and the implementation of maintenance for Hengli Dalian's 2.5 million ton plant. As of August 16th, the operating rate of PTA industry in China was around 86%, maintaining a high level, and the overall supply of goods was still abundant.

In the crude oil market, the trend of US oil destocking was not as expected, which limited the support for the oil market. However, we still need to be vigilant about changes in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices may remain stable. Recently, the overall supply capacity of PX in Asia has been at a high level, coupled with the continued shutdown plans of some PTA plants in China, resulting in a consolidation of PX prices at a low level.

Downstream polyester production was around 83%, and there were temporarily no plans for large-scale polyester plants to shut down or reduce production in the short term, resulting in weak demand for PTA. Terminal demand was still in the off-season, and finished product inventory was still mainly accumulated. Downstream were cautious about raw material procurement, focusing on essential needs. As of August 16th, the operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained around 63%.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that PTA had abundant supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lacked highlights. In addition, the cost side support had slowed down, and under the lack of positive guidance in the market, PTA prices may fluctuate to be weaker.

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