Price trend

This week (8.3-8.9), the domestic vinyl cyanide market continued to decline. The price of vinyl cyanide in the domestic market has been continuously declining for more than three months, and there was still no clear sign of bottoming out. As of the weekend, the mainstream self pickup price in the East China market had dropped to around 8,000 RMB/ton, and short distance delivery in the Shandong market was being negotiated around 8,000 RMB/ton. Supply exceeding demand was still the fundamental factor leading to the decline in vinyl cyanide prices. Due to the considerable profits of some vinyl cyanide major factories in co producing MMA products, it supported the maintenance of vinyl cyanide plant production, especially in maintaining ample supply. However, there was temporarily no effective positive news.

Analysis review

On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic vinyl cyanide plants had dropped to around 74% and remained high.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic propylene market had slightly declined this week, with the mainstream closing reference at 6,750-6,850 RMB/ton. As of August 16th, the market direction guidance was not clear, and the wait-and-see sentiment among industry players still existed. Downstream demand was supported by a certain amount of buying demand, and most propylene companies had eased their shipping pressure, which still provided support for price trends. However, fundamental pressure still existed, and it is expected that the propylene market will be dominated by weak fluctuations.

Weak demand: This week, some ABS units in China had slightly increased their operating load, while downstream units had been affected by high temperatures and rainy weather, resulting in some shutdowns and holidays. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 67%, an increase of 1.13% compared to the previous period.

Market outlook

Overall, the domestic propylene market may experience weak fluctuations next week, with insufficient cost support. Although vinyl cyanide factories had taken measures such as maintenance or production reduction to alleviate shipment pressure, downstream inquiries tended to be low-end, and the news of production reduction had not boosted the vinyl cyanide market. The focus of transactions is expected to continue to weaken, and it is expected that the mainstream negotiation price for self pickup in East China ports will fall to around 7,900 RMB/ton.

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