Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from August 12th to 20th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8,778 RMB/ton to 8,742 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.41% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 23.601%. The focus of the domestic BDO market continued to decline, with an overall increase in industry operating rates and an increase in market supply. However, the overall load of downstream industries was average, and the supply-demand contradiction highlighted the bearish mentality of industry players in terms of purchasing and sales, leading to a volatile downward trend in the market.
Analysis review
On the supply side, Xinjiang Tianye and Hengli facilities had successively restarted, and the market supply of goods had increased significantly. In addition, the new production capacity of the second phase of Xinye had been put into operation, and the positive support from the supply side was relatively weak. The favorable factors for BDO supply had weakened.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: With the obvious oversupply in the calcium carbide market, the factory price continued to decline, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to start production remained low. However, downstream demand was still in a decreasing stage, and market sentiment was sluggish. Raw material methanol: The methanol market was operating weakly. As of 10:00 am on August 20th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2,425 RMB/ton. The BDO cost side was affected by bearish factors.
On the demand side, there was no significant change in downstream industry load, maintaining the follow-up of essential orders, and severely suppressing spot prices. There was a lack of obvious positive factors on the supply and demand side of the market, and business operators had a bearish attitude towards purchasing and sales. The demand side of BDO was affected by bearish factors.
Market outlook
As of August 20th, market prices were at a low level, industry losses were intensifying, and the supply side's stable market mentality was dominant, which may limit the downward space. SunSirs’ BDO analyst predicts that the domestic BDO market will continue to operate weakly.
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