Price trend

According to SunSirs monitoring data, aniline companies lowered their prices early this week and subsequently maintained a steady trend. The price in Shandong area was 5,900 RMB/ton, down by 300 RMB/ton from last Friday, a decrease of 4.84%; the price in Nanjing area was 6,150 RMB/ton, which was 300 RMB/ton lower than last Friday, a decrease of 4.65%.

Analysis review   

Materials: The selling price of pure benzene was 3,500-4,200 RMB/ton this Friday. This week, the price center of pure benzene moved down again, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. The average listing price of pure benzene on the 13th was 4,680 RMB/ton, and the average listing price on the 20th was 3,840 RMB/ton, with a weekly decrease of 17.95%. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene on Tuesday, which exceeded market expectations, leading to weak market negotiations. In addition, the import of pure benzene fell sharply, and the market was in a bad mood. The price of nitric acid rose this week. The production price in East China was 1,550 RMB/ton, up 50 RMB/ton or 3.33% compared with last week. But it is weak for aniline.

Product: Affected by inventory pressure and costs, aniline lowered prices earlier this week. In the later period, the supply and demand of aniline was stable, and enterprises tended to wait and see prices. Compared with pure benzene, the decline of aniline is smaller, and the profit margin is expanded.

Market outlook

Downstream products were dragged down by weak terminal demand, and inventory release was slow, which continued to negative the pure benzene market. Recently, the arbitrage of internal and external disks has opened, and subsequent low-cost supplies in Southeast Asia may enter arbitrage in China. In addition, the pure benzene factory has gradually increased the load, and the subsequent supply-demand contradictions have become more prominent. Under the short-term contradiction between supply and demand, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve substantially. It is expected that pure benzene will reach a new low.

The lack of favorable benzene market, or continued to weaken, the cost side loosened, the price of aniline support weakened. In addition, the downstream start-up is slow, and the demand for aniline is limited, so the shipping pressure of the company still exists.

The cost side is loose and the downstream procurement is cautious. If pure benzene continues to fall in the later period, aniline may follow the decline to promote shipments.

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