Aluminum prices rebound in August

Aluminum prices rebound in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on August 22, 2024 was 19,703.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.69% from the market average price of 19,186.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (August 1).

Reasons for the rebound of aluminum prices in August

1. On the macro news front, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is good. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in July suggested that there is a high possibility of a rate cut in September, with the largest decline in non farm payroll in 15 years in the year ending in March, raising market bets on a significant 50 basis point rate cut in September from 29% to nearly 39%.
2. Low inventory of raw material alumina, firm prices, and cost driven aluminum prices are improving.
3. In the off-season of aluminum processing in August, the inventory data of electrolytic aluminum shows good domestic supply and demand. As of August 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream areas was 790,000 tons, compared to the inventory of 803,000 tons on August 1 at the beginning of the month, with 13,000 tons sold out. At the same time, the expectation of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has further boosted market expectations.

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