Price trend

According to the data of the SunSirs, the domestic PC market was in a stalemate in mid-August, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell within a narrow range. As of August 20, the Sino-Trade PC mixed benchmark price was around 16,283.33 RMB/ton, and the price rose and fell by -1.11% compared with August 1.

Analysis review

Supply: In mid-August, the overall domestic PC operating rate was stable and slightly increased, and the average industry operating rate was slightly increased by 1.8% to around 75% compared with early August. At the end of July, the spot price fell to the lowest point of the year, and the manufacturers increased their price support and bottoming operations, while the polymerization plants jointly raised prices in mid-month to cover the merchants' shipments, but the results showed little effect. The scale of the maintenance plan in the future market is average, and Wanhua Chemical plans to restart on the 20th, and the industry load is expected to be stable and slightly increased. The supply in the market will remain abundant. Overall, the market supply side generally supports PC prices.

Raw materials: The current domestic bisphenol A price trend continues the weak pattern in the first half of the month. The increase in the previous long-range international crude oil was suppressed by the weak demand outlook, which in turn affected the weakening of bisphenol A raw materials phenol and acetone. The raw material side has weakened the support for bisphenol A. The load of the bisphenol A industry has limited changes, the supply of goods has a flat trend, and the supply side support is stalemate. The start-up of the two main downstreams has weakened, and the stocking is weak and rigid demand purchases, and the liquidity of the supply is not good. Overall, the support of bisphenol A on the cost side of PC has fallen. However, the recent geopolitical instability has increased the possibility of oil price increases, and it is recommended to pay close attention to the trends of the upstream.

Demand: The PC consumption pattern in mid-August has not improved, and the overall pattern continues to be weak in the previous period. The main logic of purchasing is weak rigid demand, and the factory takes goods to maintain production. The load of downstream enterprises is not high, the enthusiasm for stocking is weak, and the consumption remains at a low level. Buyers are strongly resistant to high-priced sources, and they react negatively to the price increase of polymerization plants. The circulation of goods in the market is slow. The demand side does not support spot prices well.

Market outlook

The PC market was in a stalemate in mid-August. The upstream bisphenol A market continued to be weak, and the support from the PC cost side weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants was stable and slightly increased, and the supply-side factors did not improve. PC prices fell to the low point range of the year in the early stage, but the market did not rebound due to the bottoming force. On the contrary, the weak rigid demand consumption in the downstream is difficult to drive the market. The market supply flow is not good, and the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the PC market may continue to run at a low level in the short term.

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