Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from August 19th to 23rd, the domestic ethyl alcohol price fell from 5,982 RMB/ton to 5,970 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 12.37%. The domestic ethyl alcohol market prices were weakly stable, with rising raw material prices, cost pressures on ethyl alcohol production enterprises, increased market supply, and demand side demand for fixed procurement. At the same time, there was a strong demand for fixed purchases on the demand side, and actual transactions were light.

Analysis review

In terms of cost, the domestic corn market had fluctuated, and rumors of overdue rice had been delayed; The cost of building a database for traders was relatively high; Channel inventory was low, and the expected decrease in imported grains in the fourth quarter. The cost of ethyl alcohol was favorable the market.

On the supply side, there were significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; The Guotou Yushu Ethyl alcohol Plant was temporarily in operation and will soon begin production; The third line plan of Fukang ethyl alcohol plant will stop feeding in the near future; Sichuan Hongzhan Ethyl alcohol Plant had been completely shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in September. There had been no significant changes to the equipment in other factories. The ethyl alcohol supply side was negative for the market.

On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continued and orders were postponed; The short-term anhydrous procurement of methyl ethyl ester remained stable; Ethyl acetate will restart the Baichuan plant next week, and the Anhui Huayi plant was scheduled for maintenance, with little fluctuation in short-term operation. In the short term, ethyl alcohol demand is bearish for the market.

Market outlook

The negative impact of the cost side, coupled with the abundant supply in the market, led to significant overall shipping pressure. Ethyl alcohol analysts from SunSirs predict that domestic ethyl alcohol prices will remain stable with a weaker trend in the short term.

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