Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 27th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2,197 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.67% from the reference average price of 2,329 RMB/ton on August 1st.

Analysis review

Market conditions

In August, the domestic urea market prices were weak and fell. As of August 27th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region was around 2,010-2,020 RMB/ton, in Hebei region it was around 2,020 RMB/ton, in Henan region it was around 2,000-2,020 RMB/ton, and in Liaoning region it was around 2,100 RMB/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from May 27, 2024 to August 19, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle was fluctuating. There was a significant decline in August, with the largest drop being 2.83% in the week of August 19th.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market had ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintained essential procurement. The operating rate and market of downstream compound fertilizers remained stable, with a focus on on-demand procurement of urea and mostly low-priced transactions. With the gradual increase of supply, the market was dominated by oversupply.

Market outlook

The urea analyst from SunSirs believes that the supply of urea in the market had increased, and the recent trend of the urea market was downward. As of August 27th, market demand was still high, and downstream buyers are seeking lower prices. The industry was mainly cautious. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

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