According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has significantly declined. From August 1st to 29th, MTBE prices fell from 6,787 RMB/ton to 6,187 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 8.84% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 20.80%.
In early August, due to the shutdown and maintenance of multiple facilities, resource supply was reduced, and many manufacturers offered higher prices for shipments. However, the demand for gasoline at the terminal was flat, and the enthusiasm of industry buyers was also lackluster, resulting in a stagnant market consolidation. In mid August, the overall fluctuation space of the domestic MTBE market was not large, and the demand for gasoline terminals was weak. Downstream buyers were able to purchase according to demand, and manufacturers' shipments were flat. In late August, due to the abundant supply of MTBE resources and the lack of export support, the overall domestic MTBE market experienced a significant decline.
On the cost side, international crude oil prices first fell and then rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the Israeli Palestinian ceasefire negotiations released a positive signal, and market concerns about demand prospects continued to ferment. However, the assassination of Hamas leaders narrowed the decline. In mid month, the ongoing Israeli Palestinian peace talks have temporarily eased the situation in the Middle East, and market concerns about poor demand prospects and the risk of economic recession in the United States have only increased. As the end of the month approaches, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has increased, and Libyan crude oil exports are facing force majeure.
On the demand side, gasoline terminals are approaching the end of summer, and the frequency of private car trips by the public has decreased. Retail gas station shipments have stabilized, and most gas station merchants purchase on demand, maintaining a median inventory operation. Operators may purchase MTBE on demand. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, Huayi Chemical and Dongfang Hongye plan maintenance, while Dongming Qianhai plans to start construction. Maintenance and construction coexist, and resource supply will be slightly reduced. Overall, the operating rate of MTBE units is still relatively low, which provides some support for the market. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, on August 28th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market decreased by $40/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $755.99-757.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $3.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $906.49-906.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $10.76 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $856-856.36 per ton (241.13-241.23 cents per gallon).
In the short term, the overall supply pressure in China is relatively high, and with weak demand, manufacturers can only reduce prices and promote sales. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to be weak in the short term.
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