Price trend                               

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel slightly rose in August and then fell and stabilized. As of the end of August, the spot price of stainless steel was 12,757.14 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from 12,928.57 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 9.89%. The fundamental pressure of stainless steel supply and demand continued to exist in August.

According to the annual price comparison chart of stainless steel by SunSirs in the past five years, the price of stainless steel in September showed mixed with half ups and half downs.

Analysis review

Supply and demand side        

On the raw material side, the actual metal production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia in July 2024 totaled 148,400 tons, an increase of 3.79% month on month and a decrease of 5.18% year-on-year. The total production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia from January to July 2024 was 1.0205 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. Among them, the production of medium and high nickel pig iron and nickel metal was 976,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%.

On the supply side, in July 2024, the crude steel production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.30825 million tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month on month, an increase of 0.6%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. In August, the production was 3.3867 million tons, an increase of 2.37% month on month, and a year-on-year increase of 4.04%. Stainless steel supply was still at a high level during the same period. Domestic stainless steel production continues to release, with production scheduling still at a high level, and both China and Indonesia had successively added stainless steel production capacity, making it difficult to alleviate supply pressure.

On the demand side, compared to the supply growth rate, the downstream demand growth rate was relatively weak. Recently, the progress of domestic special bond issuance had accelerated, but the driving effect on infrastructure projects and the driving effect transmitted to stainless steel demand still need to be observed. The demand for home appliances and other manufacturing industries was good. Overall, the supply and demand pattern of stainless steel was relatively loose, with high inventory fluctuations and downstream demand still not showing significant improvement.

Stainless steel inventory

As of last weekend, the total inventory of stainless steel was 108.87 tons, an increase of 0.36% compared to last week. Among them, cold-rolled inventory decreased while hot-rolled inventory increased.

Market outlook

In summary, there has been no significant improvement in the fundamentals, and the downstream demand for replenishment has not yet been fulfilled. Although the stainless steel market has been under pressure recently, there is still a certain opportunity for the market to strengthen. Continue to observe the degree of stainless steel production reduction, the speed of raw material supply recovery, and downstream demand in the future. It is expected that the stainless steel market will fluctuate to be stronger in September.

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