According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fluctuated narrowly. From August 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market first fell from 2,510 RMB/ton and then rose to 2,480 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.20% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 4.11%, and a year-on-year price drop of 1.78%.
In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market saw a narrow consolidation. Due to weak demand, there is currently no significant positive news to boost the market. The overall delivery volume in the mainland market is average, and coupled with the impact of weather factors on transportation, inventory has accumulated in the mainland. However, companies do not have any pressure to ship, and the market performance is stagnant.
In mid month, the domestic methanol market was running weakly. The supply has increased, and the domestic methanol market has a strong mentality towards yeast storage. Demand continues to operate weakly, with some traders purchasing at low prices.
At the end of the month, some methanol plants were unplanned to shut down, resulting in a narrow reduction in domestic methanol production. In addition, large-scale olefin extraction in the northwest led to a rebound in the domestic methanol market, but the traditional downstream market still did not show significant improvement, maintaining weak operation as the main trend, and the overall increase was not significant.
As of the close on August 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2,530 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,537 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,517 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,528 RMB/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 10 RMB/ton or 0.39% from the previous trading day's settlement, with a trading volume of 471,907 lots and a holding volume of 617,644 lots, with a daily increase of -7,770.
In terms of cost and supply, global coal supply remains stable, while domestic imports have increased. The increase in domestic demand is insufficient to support coal prices at a high level; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small, and the terminal mainly relies on long-term agreements to replenish inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the sentiment is generally wait-and-see. In the later stage, as the peak season gradually comes to an end, coupled with the high import replenishment, the supply and demand structure will become wider. It will be more difficult to see the driving force and logic of coal price increase. Even if there is a slight improvement in the spot market and market confidence is insufficient, it will be difficult to support the trend of coal price increase. It is expected that coal prices will remain stagnant and weakly stable in the short term. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Hengxin's equipment storage and operation plan has led to an increase in formaldehyde demand; Downstream acetic acid: Tianjian, extended maintenance and repair, Longyu has recovery expectations, and the demand for acetic acid has increased; Downstream chloride: Mainstream factories in East China resume production, Shandong Jinling Dongying plant operates at half load, and chloride demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: Qianjiang Jinhuarun plant is shut down, and there are no plans to shut down or start other plants. Demand for dimethyl ether has decreased; Downstream MTBE: MTBE has no new start-up and shutdown devices, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, Inner Mongolia Xinao, Inner Mongolia Baogang, Sichuan Lutianhua, Ningxia Hening, Xinjiang Xinye, Shandong Rongxin, Shanxi Coking Plant Maintenance; JiuRMB Chemical and Inner Mongolia Dongri Plant reduce production; Anhui Huayi, Xinjiang Xinlianxin, and Inner Mongolia New Olympics facilities have been restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 29th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00-347.00/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 108.00-109.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 345.00-346.00 euros/ton, up 5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the methanol plant will continue to operate at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year, with a large amount of port arrivals, and inventory will continue to accumulate; Traditional downstream demand still shows a slow season performance, with a significant decline in operating rates. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.
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