Price trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, as of the end of the month, spot nickel was quoted at 131,666 RMB/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.49%. The macro sentiment was fluctuating, and there was no significant improvement in the spot trading atmosphere. Domestic and foreign inventories maintained a trend of accumulation, and nickel prices fluctuated and closed down in August.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, news such as a decline in the US manufacturing PMI in July and weak non-farm payroll reports had sparked global economic growth anxiety and concerns about weak demand; Various institutions predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, boosting market trends; As of August 30th, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts had largely subsided, while concerns about recession expectations continued.

On the supply side: Global inventories continued to increase, and expectations of oversupply remained unchanged. As of August 30th, LME nickel inventory was 118,998 tons, with a month on month increase of 2382 tons; Shanghai nickel inventory was 22,612 tons, an increase of 2,544 tons month on month. Domestic inventory pressure was evident, and the upward momentum of nickel prices may weaken.

In terms of demand, stainless steel production slightly increased in August, with continuous release of output and fluctuating inventory levels. Downstream demand had not shown significant improvement, and the stainless steel market was under pressure. The expected demand for Gold September was not optimistic. On August 30th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in SunSirs was 12,757.14 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the beginning of the month, and continued to operate at a low level. The demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding remained stable, and enterprises were buying at low prices.

Market outlook

Demand had not improved yet, inventory was under pressure, the surplus pattern continued, and macroeconomic fluctuations were expected. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

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