Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of soda ash continued to decline in August. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1,884 RMB/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1,810 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.93% during the month and a decrease of 37.37% compared to the same period last year.

On August 30th, the light soda ash commodity index was 92.82 points, unchanged from the previous day, a decrease of 50.91% from the cycle's highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 46.98% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

Analysis review

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the soda ash market continued to operate weakly this month. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity was still at a high level, with sufficient soda ash production, accumulated market inventory, and active shipment by enterprises; On the demand side, the terminal market continued to operate weakly and mainly consumed inventory. At the same time, some glass companies started cold repair plans, resulting in insufficient downstream demand and weak market trading atmosphere. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash continued to decline. As of August 30, 2024, the price of soda ash in East China was weakly stable, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1,650-1,970 RMB/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China had been lowered, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1,520-1,850 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price trend of glass continued to decline this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 17.24 RMB/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 15.72 RMB/square meter, a decrease of 8.82%. The spot prices in the glass market continued to be weak, with downstream inventory consumption being the main factor. Market demand was weak, and trading in the market was sluggish, resulting in a continuous decline in prices.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 34th week of 2024 (8.19-8.23), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase were: caustic soda (0.75%); The main commodities experiencing a decline were baking soda (-1.49%), light soda ash (-0.55%), and PVC (-0.22%). The average increase or decrease this week was -0.25%.

Market outlook

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the recent price trend of light soda ash was mainly weak and stable, with some slight downward adjustments. The operating rate of spot alkali plant equipment had slightly decreased, but the supply of goods was still sufficient, and the supply side support was insufficient. The downstream market was weak, and there was a cold repair plan in the glass market. The demand for soda ash was limited, and there was a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that soda ash will continue to be weak in the later period, depending on the demand in the downstream market.

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