The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on September 5th, and the retail price of refined oil is about to be lowered. The retail price of refined oil in 2024 has experienced seven upward adjustments, six downward adjustments, and four stranded adjustments. The crude oil market trend has declined during the cycle, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will encounter the "seventh" downward adjustment.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has declined. As of the 4th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.20 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.70 per barrel. The crude oil market has declined in this cycle, partly due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Libya announced that it is expected to resolve restrictions on crude oil exports, easing the tight supply of crude oil and causing a significant drop in international oil prices. On the other hand, there are concerns that China's crude oil demand may not meet expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, which will drag down the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle, with a negative increase in crude oil change rate. As of the 5th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -2.61%, corresponding to a decrease of 100 RMB per ton of gasoline and 100 RMB per ton of diesel, equivalent to a decrease of 0.08 RMB per liter of 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, and 0# diesel.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rates of our main business and local refineries have both increased to a certain extent. Some maintenance facilities in Shandong have restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 56%, while the national operating rate is 65%. The operating rate of local refineries has increased compared to before, and the supply of refined oil has increased. With the end of summer vacation and a decrease in the number of tourists, the demand for gasoline has declined, and intermediaries are replenishing their inventory according to demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, resulting in a downward trend in the gasoline market.
In terms of diesel, the supply side diesel market has increased recently, but the demand for diesel has not improved significantly. Recently, there have been frequent rainy weather in various regions, and the operating rate of outdoor construction units and logistics transportation oil companies has not yet increased. The consumption of resources in the diesel market is slow, and traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. In addition, the trend of the crude oil market is declining, and the diesel market is also declining. However, with the end of the fishing ban in the sea area and the gradual disappearance of high temperatures, diesel consumption has slowly increased, and the resilience of the diesel market has strengthened.
Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, with the traditional peak season in the United States coming to an end, coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly weak. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the price trend of the gasoline market has declined; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches and diesel usage gradually increases, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. In the short term, the diesel market continues to be sluggish, but there is still room for rebound in the later period.
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