Price trend
This week (8.31-9.5), unconsciously, it has entered September, which is the traditional peak demand season for the vinyl cyanide industry. However, based on the recent performance of the vinyl cyanide market, there has been a significant deviation from expectations. After a slight increase of 100 RMB per ton following the factory's offer at the beginning of the month, the market returned to calm again. As of September 5th, the mainstream self pickup reference price for vinyl cyanide in the East China port market had reached 8,550-8,650 RMB/ton.
Analysis review
On the supply side, domestic vinyl cyanide plants successively reduced their load, with operating rates dropping to around 63.72%, a decrease of 5.06% compared to last week.
The vinyl cyanide market did not experience the expected peak season rise in September, but faced the problem of weak demand. On the one hand, with the continuous growth of vinyl cyanide production capacity, the industry's supply pressure had increased. Despite taking proactive measures such as maintenance and load reduction, the production in August still increased by 20,000 tons compared to the same period last year. Therefore, the effect of reducing production was relatively poor, and manufacturers still had sufficient inventory.
On the other hand, the demand has not followed up. Although the profitability of downstream ABS manufacturers has improved and backup devices have gradually increased their operating load, some devices have entered a shutdown maintenance state as scheduled, and some new devices have not increased their load as expected. The operating rate was 62.67%, an increase of 0.72% month on month and a decrease of 25.22% year-on-year, so the overall demand growth was limited. This month, 75.4% of the acrylic fiber production has started, while the rest of the mainstream factories have started steadily, with little change in demand compared to the previous period. After a slight increase in production in early August, the acrylamide industry has experienced another decline. Therefore, the insufficient increase in production of downstream products has led to prominent market supply-demand contradictions and price pressures. Although the price of raw material propylene increased in mid August, it did not provide strong cost support for vinyl cyanide, and the price subsequently declined.
Market outlook
Overall, the "Golden September" in the vinyl cyanide market did not show a significant peak season effect, and the market as a whole presented a situation of sufficient supply but insufficient demand, with insufficient price action power. It is expected that the vinyl cyanide market will continue to face weak demand pressure in the short term, and prices may maintain a volatile trend. Market participants need to closely monitor the operating conditions of downstream industries and changes in vinyl cyanide plants, as well as the impact of raw material costs and macroeconomic environment on the vinyl cyanide market.
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