SunSirs: Energy, Refined Petroleum Coke Fell sharply affected by Domestic Demand

Price Data

Recently, the price of refined petroleum coke has been greatly reduced. According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1,334.25 RMB/ ton on March 16, 1,137.50 RMB/ ton on March 25, down 196.75 RMB/ ton in the week, up or down by -14.75%.

On March 25, the petroleum coke commodity index was 88.47, down 0.97 points from yesterday, down 43.14% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.26% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the recent delivery of refined petroleum coke is generally light, and the inventory pressure of the refinery is large.

Industry chain: upstream: since the collapse of OPEC+ conference, Saudi Arabia has continuously released the news that the production has increased substantially. Russia has actively responded to the war to increase production, and the US shale oil industry has suffered heavy losses. US President Trump said that he will intervene in the oil price dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the right time, and the international oil price has rebounded. Downstream: the delivery of calcined coke is general, and the downstream enterprises mainly wait and see. Electrolytic aluminum market prices falls, carbon enterprises trading is light. According to the data of SunSirs, as of March 25, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 11,350.00 RMB/ ton.

Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predict that the market price of petroleum coke in the near future will drop sharply, mainly because the coking units of local refining enterprises will be resumed in succession, and the production of PetroChina and Sinopec will be increased, the market supply will increase, the inventory will be abundant, and the downstream operation rate is limited, the demand will be low, It is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the near future will continue to decline, may be around 950-1,100 RMB/ ton.

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