Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from August 30th to September 6th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8,171 to 7,600 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 6.99% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 34.72%. The domestic BDO market continueD to decline, with light spot trading. At present, the inventory is relatively high, and downstream demand orders followed up and are negotiated mainly, resulting in a weak BDO market atmosphere.

Analysis review

On the supply side, the 60,000 ton/year plant in Xinye, Xinjiang underwent a 10 day maintenance on August 30th. Xinjiang Xinye and Kaixiang facilities have been shut down for replacement and maintenance, resulting in a continued decrease in industry capacity utilization and a reduction in market supply. The supply side of BDO has support for the market.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: After entering September, under cost pressure, some enterprises have carried out maintenance, load reduction, etc., and the domestic calcium carbide market has entered the stage of inventory consumption. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is weak and volatile. As of 10:00 am on September 6th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang was 2,385 RMB/ton. The BDO cost side provides bearish factors for the market.

On the demand side, after entering the traditional golden September peak season, the downstream raw material inventory of the terminal is relatively low, and the atmosphere of market inquiries has improved. There is a willingness to replenish inventory and replenish demand. However, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal demand and the negative impact of the downward trend in raw material prices, downstream industries such as PTMEG spandex, GBL-NMP, PBT, PBAT, etc. have resonated downward, and downstream bargaining sentiment still exists, suppressing market trends. The demand side of BDO has bearish factors for the market.

Market outlook

At present, the industry's operating rate is relatively low, at around 60%, with some support from the supply side. With market prices falling to a low level, downstream end-users urgently need to enter the market for replenishment. Holders of goods are cautious in offering discounts and shipping, and the market fluctuation space may be limited. The BDO analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly be dominated by weak consolidation.

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