Price trend

Due to the cost reduction of steel mills and the recovery of profits, some high and electric furnace enterprises had resumed production, and the production of galvanized sheets had slightly rebounded. Although inventory is being depleted, the overall rate of inventory reduction was slow, and the inventory was still higher than the same period last year. At the same time, the price of raw material hot coils continued to decline, and the cost side support weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of galvanized steel coils in China continued to decline this week. As of September 6th, the average market price of galvanized steel coils in China was 4,065.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.33% compared to the previous week.  

Factors affecting price fluctuations:

Fundamentals

In September, the supply of galvanized sheet coils showed a slight rebound, with an increase in production. Although inventory was being depleted, the overall rate of inventory reduction was slow, and the inventory was still higher than the same period last year. According to the latest data obtained by SunSirs, the overall production rate of galvanized sheet this week was 81.63%; The capacity utilization rate was 56.61%, an increase of 0.15% compared to last week; The weekly output was 807,400 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from last week. This week's steel mill inventory was 521,700 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from last week; The social inventory was 1.2206 million tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from last week, and the total inventory was 1.7423 million tons, a decrease of 7,200 tons from last week.

In terms of downstream customers, it is understood that as of September 6th, downstream customers in the market mainly purchased according to their needs, and their enthusiasm for stockpiling was not high. In terms of mentality, although there was a certain seasonal improvement in demand in September, the overall demand increment was limited, and terminal procurement was still cautious, mainly based on demand. Traders have a strong bearish sentiment towards the future market.

Cost side

This week, iron ore prices fluctuated downwards and weakened. As of the 7th, the SunSirs iron ore price index was 708.22, down 7.58% month on month. The decline in steel trading volume, hindered the recovery of finished products, and the unfavorable macro environment have affected market sentiment, leading to a weakening of black series futures prices. Under the resonance of futures and spot prices, the iron ore market had also begun to decline; At the same time, the process of destocking port inventory had been hindered. Although the production of molten iron had recovered, the profits of steel mills were low, and procurement operations were cautious. The strong supply and weak demand fundamentals are bearish on iron ore prices, resulting in a significant decline in iron ore prices and weak operation.

Market outlook

In the traditional peak season of September and October, there may be a slight improvement in demand for galvanized steel coils. However, in the current downward trend, terminal procurement is still cautious and mainly based on demand. Currently, most market merchants hold a cautious attitude towards the future market. SunSirs predicts that the price of galvanized steel coils may continue to decline weakly in the short term.

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