According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since September 5th, the number of imported soybeans in China has increased sharply, and supply pressure has suppressed it. Soybean meal continues to decline weakly, and the market average price has returned to the 3,000 RMB mark, with an overall decline of over 2%. On September 5th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,150 RMB/ton. On September 11th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,086 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.03%.
Supply: In August 2024, China's soybean imports were 12.144 million tons, higher than the 9.853 million tons in July. The soybean imports from January to August were 70.48 million tons, an increase of 2.8% compared to the same period last year's 68.56 million tons. The quantity of imported soybeans increased significantly in August, and the loose supply of raw material imported soybeans suppressed the upward trend of soybean meal.
Inventory: According to the soybean meal inventory statistics of SunSirs, the soybean meal inventory continued to decline from January to April 2024. On the week of April 5th, the soybean meal inventory was at its lowest point of the year, only 300,000 tons. Starting from mid April, soybean meal inventory showed a rebound trend. From May to July, soybean meal continued to accumulate in stock, with inventory exceeding 1 million tons. Starting from August, soybean meal inventory has reached a new high, with the highest point approaching 1.5 million tons. Entering September, soybean meal inventory has fallen slightly, still approaching 1.4 million tons. The inventory pressure continues to double, and the soybean meal market continues to bottom out.
Futures: Since September, the production of US soybeans has basically taken shape, with high yields being the main focus. However, the US soybean market has declined in foreign trading, and the domestic soybean meal market has shown weak rebound, putting pressure on the upward trend. As of September 11th, the main contract for soybean meal received 3063 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10 RMB/ton. The futures market is weak and falling, while the spot market for soybean meal is weak.
Demand: Since September, the demand for feed in the terminal aquaculture industry has increased. With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, the number of soybean meal purchased by feed mills has increased. Due to the still low soybean meal market, the terminal lacks confidence in the soybean meal market, the increase in demand is not significant, and soybean meal transactions are still acceptable, putting pressure on the upward trend of the market.
The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that after mid September, the demand for soybean meal terminal feed will gradually recover, which will provide some support for the soybean meal market. Due to loose supply and inventory pressure, the potential for a significant increase in the soybean meal market in the future is limited, and the market is mainly volatile.
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