Price trend                               

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda increased in early September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 829 RMB/ton. On September 12th, the average market price was around 833 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%.

Analysis review

In terms of market conditions

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda rose in early September.

Supply side

At the beginning of September, the market showed an upward trend, with some areas experiencing some improvement in transaction conditions. The maintenance of some facilities in Shandong had a significant boost to market prices, and there was not much pressure on enterprise inventory. Data showed that as of September 5, 2024, the inventory of liquid alkali sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in their factory warehouses nationwide was 286,900 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.61% compared to the previous period.

Demand side

In early September, downstream alumina prices continued to show a stable to strong trend. Some aluminum plants that had a demand for replenishment had concentrated their purchases in the market, driving the price of caustic soda to continue to rise. Alumina continues to be in a tight pattern, and there may still be a demand for replenishing caustic soda.

Market outlook

SunSirs believe that recently, the price of caustic soda rose in early September, and inventory in the Shandong region remained relatively low, coupled with some downstream purchasing intentions increasing. However, in the later stage, the supply side maintenance devices gradually resumed normal production, and there are no obvious maintenance devices in the later stage, resulting in a regional increase in the supply of goods. On the demand side, the main downstream alumina enterprises' essential procurement has provided certain support for the caustic soda market, while the demand of other downstream industries has slightly increased. The overall demand side has improved compared to the previous period. From the perspective of both supply and demand, there is not much overall change, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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