As the holiday approaches, there is a significant increase in downstream demand for replenishment. Today, coal prices in major markets in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have risen by 5-15 RMB, and southern ports also have the intention to adjust prices. With the continuous increase in consumer demand in September, lump coal, as an essential energy source for winter civilian use in the north, has attracted much attention to its price trend.
From the demand side, the autumn temperatures in northern regions are gradually decreasing, and the demand for heating is also beginning to emerge. Many businesses and households prepare heating equipment and coal in advance, so the demand for civilian lump coal before holidays will increase significantly. The increase in market demand often directly drives up prices. It should be pointed out that due to the continuous decline in coal prices this year, many northern regions have not yet started hoarding coal.
In terms of imports: The market trend of imported coal prices is relatively strong, and the price of low calorie coal has dropped to a relatively low point in the early stage. With the rise of domestic coal prices and the filling of vacancies by previous bidders, the sentiment of imported coal has improved, and the quotation has increased. The FOB price of Indonesia's 3,800 kcal coal ship is around 54 US dollars, which is 1-2 US dollars higher than last week's quotation. Considering the approaching Mid Autumn Festival and National Day, the replenishment window for power plants has been shortened, and the price of imported coal has also increased.
In terms of origin: Market negotiations continue to rebound, coal pallets continue to be released, actual transactions are good, and freight rate increases have expanded. Main reasons: Firstly, since September, the high temperatures in the south have continued to surge, and coastal power plants have maintained high consumption. Under the consumption of inventory, some power plants have released certain purchasing demands, and their enthusiasm for booking ships has increased; Secondly, Typhoon Capricorn in the early stage brought strong wind and rain weather to the coastal areas of southern China, which had a certain impact on the turnover of coastal transportation capacity.
In terms of port: With the rise in domestic coal prices and previous bidders filling in vacancies, imported coal sentiment has improved and prices have increased. The FOB price for Indonesia's 3800 kcal coal ship is around $54, an increase of $1-2 from last week's price. Considering the approaching Mid Autumn Festival and National Day, the replenishment window for power plants has been shortened, and the price of imported coal has also increased.
Considering the supply and demand relationship, policy regulation and international market dynamics, the coal price before the Mid Autumn Festival has obvious advantages, and will mainly rise, with the trend of less falling and more rising becoming more obvious.
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