According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 9th to 13th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2,380 RMB/ton and then rose to 2,410 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.32% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.28%. The increase in domestic methanol production and supply, the month on month increase in unloading from foreign ships, and the overall supply increase; The demand is positive, especially with a significant increase in the port's pick-up volume this week. In addition, the impact of some vessel failures and cargo quality issues on unloading speed has led to the accumulation of port inventory.
As of the close on September 12th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2,364 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,393 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,331 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,331 RMB/ton in the closing session, up 63 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement, an increase of 2.71%. The trading volume was 730,147 lots, the position was 807,510 lots, and the daily increase was -8,287.
In terms of cost and supply, global coal supply remains stable, while domestic imports have increased. The increase in domestic demand is insufficient to support coal prices at a high level; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small, and the terminal is currently mainly supplemented by long-term agreements, replenishing inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
In terms of demand, downstream formaldehyde: Henan Lankao Huitong plant increases load, formaldehyde demand increases; Downstream acetic acid: Longyu unit resumes full load operation, Sopu unit is normal, Tianjian is expected to recover, and demand for acetic acid increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: Qianjiang Jinhua Runcun's start-up plan has led to an increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: Dongying Shenchi has a shutdown plan, resulting in a decrease in MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: The demand for chloride does not fluctuate significantly. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
In terms of supply, maintenance of Jinneng Technology and Yangmei Fengxi equipment; Xinjiang's new industrial facilities have reduced production; Shandong Mingshui, Jinfeng Wenxi, Inner Mongolia Xinao, Chongqing Kabele, Shanxi Lubao, and Northwest Energy Plant restoration. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $344.00- $345.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 106.00-107.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 334.00-335.00 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
In the future, there are still expectations of an increase on the supply side, while the demand side is relatively cautious about the pace of "double festival stocking", and the poor profits of downstream industries continue to affect purchasing sentiment. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.
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