According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of domestically refined gasoline and diesel has declined. As of the 13th, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 7,905 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.79% since September; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,802.4 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 3.0% since September.
Cost side: Since September, crude oil has significantly decreased, and the cost aspect has also declined
As of the 12th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.97 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.97 per barrel. The crude oil trend in September has sharply declined, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the crude oil market trend. The easing of the situation at the beginning of the month has led to a significant decline in the crude oil market; Since September, there have been concerns about the future demand for crude oil market, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; Finally, due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and negative factors, the overall crude oil market prices have significantly decreased, and the domestic refined oil market continues to decline.
Supply side: Refinery starts production, increases supply side
In September, some maintenance facilities in Shandong were restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong was around 60%, and the national operating rate of local refineries rose to around 74%. The operating rate of local refineries continued to rise, and the supply of refined oil increased. The market trend of local refineries for gasoline and diesel declined.
Demand side: Demand is not showing signs of improvement, and the market continues to decline
In terms of gasoline, with the gradual opening of summer tourism and the maintenance of high temperatures, the use of car air conditioning has increased, and the demand for gasoline is still acceptable. Intermediaries can replenish their inventory as needed, but the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought certain impacts on gasoline demand, and the gasoline market has declined. In terms of diesel, after the opening of the Bohai Sea, the increase in demand for marine fuel has provided some support for the market. However, there is currently no improvement in the start of outdoor projects, and agricultural diesel has come to an end. The consumption of diesel market resources is slow, and traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. As a result, there has been a small accumulation of stocks in the diesel market, leading to a downward trend in diesel prices.
At present, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, coupled with poor economic data performance, but the impact of hurricanes in the United States has led to a decline in crude oil production. Overall, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the weak gasoline market prices are difficult to change; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches, diesel usage is gradually increasing. Traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and the diesel market is mainly volatile in the short term.
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