Price trend                               

After the holiday, the domestic melamine market was weakly consolidated, downstream industrial demand was low, and there were few new transactions in the market. The overall atmosphere was sluggish. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of melamine in SunSirs was 6,762.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6,775.00 RMB/ton). The price drop of enterprises in various regions was between 50-100 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

The main reason for the sustained decline in the domestic melamine market recently was insufficient demand. In addition, the price of raw material urea had started to decline, and the transactions of melamine enterprises in the first week after the holiday were limited, resulting in a continuous decrease in prices. With the rapid decline in high-end prices, the wait-and-see mentality of downstream enterprises had intensified. In addition, downstream enterprises had more or less stocked up before the holiday, resulting in poor purchasing enthusiasm. Domestic trade demand was weak, and exports were also in a wait-and-see state. The melamine market lacked strong support, and prices continued to fall.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the operating rate of domestic sheet metal enterprises has decreased, and coupled with local environmental inspections, the operating rate in some areas is less than 50%. Due to reduced demand, melamine companies had difficulty following up on new orders, resulting in a significant decline in the market. Buyers were hesitant to enter the market unless they had urgent needs, leading to frequent low prices in the melamine market.

Raw material prices were falling: Recently, there had been another large-scale decline in domestic urea prices, and the market lacked positive news to boost the market, resulting in a continued weak downward trend in prices. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of urea in SunSirs was 2,171.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.09% compared to the beginning of this month (2,173.00 RMB/ton). The market supply and demand fundamentals were weakly supported, with weak trading sentiment and a narrow downward trend in the market. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to decline in the short term, and the market will be mainly dominated by weak consolidation.

Market outlook

Overall, there is no positive expectation for the domestic melamine market in the short term. It is expected that the mainstream price at atmospheric pressure will be around 6,500-6,700 RMB/ton next week. In the later stage, we need to mainly focus on downstream demand dynamics and changes in raw material prices.

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