Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 16th to 20th, the domestic ethyl alcohol price fell from 5,925 RMB/ton to 5,882 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.72% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 16.86%. The domestic ethyl alcohol market was running steadily but weakly, with downstream demand mainly for replenishment. The overall trading atmosphere was still acceptable, but the willingness to replenish was limited.

Analysis review

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices continued to be weak. As of September 20th, the overall quotations of deep processing enterprises were continuously decreasing, and some enterprises had made multiple adjustments within a day, with a significant cumulative decrease. As the new grain market approached, the market supply atmosphere was relatively relaxed, the mentality was not good, and the market price center was gradually declining. The cost of ethyl alcohol lacked favorable support.

On the supply side, there were significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Sichuan Hongzhan equipment was operating stably; Fukang only had four production lines, and the main large factories had low production capacity. There had been no significant changes to the equipment in other factories. The ethyl alcohol supply is expected to have favorable factors for the market.

On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continued and orders were postponed; Methyl ethyl ester maintained stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate had been reported to be functioning normally in the Yankuang plant, and the Anhui Huayi plant had resumed operations, with an increase in operating rates. Short-term ethyl alcohol demand is expected to have favorable factors for the market.

Market outlook

The negative impact on the cost side, coupled with the lack of clear signs of improvement in downstream demand. SunSirs' ethyl alcohol analyst predicts that the domestic ethyl alcohol market will remain weaker in the short term.

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