This round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on September 20th. The retail price of refined oil has once again been lowered. The retail price in 2024 has experienced seven upward adjustments, seven downward adjustments, and four stranded adjustments. During the cycle, the trend of crude oil market has declined, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will encounter the "eighth" downward adjustment.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.88 per barrel. The crude oil market has started to decline in this cycle, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle, with a negative change rate. As of the 20th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was -7.10%, corresponding to a reduction of 365 RMB per ton of gasoline and 350 RMB per ton of diesel, equivalent to a reduction of 0.28 RMB per liter of 92 # gasoline, 0.29 RMB per liter of 95 # gasoline, and 0.30 RMB per liter of 0 # diesel.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rates of our main business and local refineries have both increased to some extent. Some maintenance facilities in Shandong have restarted, and the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has slightly increased. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 60%, and the national operating rate is 73%. The operating rate of local refineries has increased compared to before, and the supply of refined oil has increased. With the end of summer vacation, the number of tourists has decreased, and the demand for gasoline has declined. Intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, and the trend of the gasoline market has declined.
In terms of diesel, the supply side diesel market has increased recently, but the actual demand for diesel is generally average. Recently, there have been frequent rainy weather in various regions, and the operating rate of outdoor construction units and logistics transportation oil companies has not yet increased. Although the fishing ban period in some sea areas has ended, the consumption of diesel market resources is slow, and traders and terminal enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. In addition, the trend of the crude oil market is declining, and the diesel market is also declining.
Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the price trend of the gasoline market has declined; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches and diesel usage gradually increases, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, resulting in a sustained downturn in the diesel market in the short term.
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