According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 16th to 20th, MTBE prices fell from 5,740 RMB/ton to 5,675 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.13% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 8.47%, and a year-on-year drop of 29.50%. Before the holiday, MTBE manufacturers are mainly actively stocking up, and the focus of the domestic MTBE market has shifted downwards. Currently, the supply of MTBE resources is still relatively abundant. At the same time, in terms of terminal demand, the production to sales ratio of gasoline continues to be low, and operators maintain on-demand purchasing of MTBE.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the contraction of supply caused by hurricanes in the United States, and the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years, which has boosted market confidence to some extent. As of September 19th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.01 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, while the refined oil market continues to be weak. Refinery oil prices have frequently fallen, mainly due to insufficient terminal demand leading to slow inventory digestion by social units. Middle and downstream merchants have conservative purchasing operations, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.
Supply side: During the holiday period, Huntsman equipment resumed work, and the load gradually increased to normal levels after the holiday. Shida Shenghua equipment also resumed work, and the resource supply showed an increasing trend. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on September 19th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $23/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $763.99-765.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $37.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $845.99-846.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $17.51/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $921.22-921.57/ton (259.50-259.60 cents/gallon).
Looking at the future forecast of gasoline terminal demand, with the approaching of the National Day holiday, the stocking enthusiasm of middle and downstream merchants may increase, and there is also an expectation of supply improvement. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market situation may mainly consolidate in the short term.
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