According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of coniferous wood pulp and broad-leaved wood pulp have been trending in opposite directions recently. On September 20th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,140 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the average price of 6,100 RMB/ton on September 15th. On September 20th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,800 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.11% compared to the average price of 4,854 RMB/ton on September 15th.
On the supply side: Based on the shipment data from the main producing countries in July, it is expected that the import volume of broad-leaved pulp in China will slightly increase and then decrease from September to October. The overall supply pressure of coniferous pulp is still not high, but there are rumors in the market that the buying transactions in August are good, and the domestic import situation may be difficult to show a significant decrease. Therefore, there is a clear upward driving force for the market, and the price of coniferous wood pulp is expected to rise. The continuous pressure on the growth of broad-leaved pulp production capacity has led to a weakening in the price of broad-leaved wood pulp.
In terms of demand, the paper industry is gradually entering the peak season from September to October. With the launch of a new round of cultural paper orders for teaching aids and Double 11 life paper orders, the downstream raw paper industry's operating rate may rebound, and paper companies' raw material inventory is relatively low. Therefore, the performance of wood pulp procurement is relatively strong, which has driven the price of coniferous pulp to slightly increase. However, the terminal demand for other types of paper still shows poor performance, with some small and medium-sized manufacturers experiencing downtime, and spot prices also showing a downward trend due to constraints from the demand side.
Domestic port data: This week, the sample inventory of mainstream ports in China maintained a trend of destocking. As of September 19, 2024, the sample inventory of pulp in mainstream ports in China was 1.761 million tons, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.078 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% compared to the previous period; The inventory of Changshu Port was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 8.3% compared to the previous period.
Futures: After the Mid Autumn Festival, the price of pulp futures contracts rose. As of September 20th, the opening price of the main contract SP2501 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,738 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,800 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,828 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 2%. The trading volume was 259,600 lots, and the position was 148,951 lots.
The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that the current strong upward trend in pulp futures prices provides favorable support for the spot price of wood pulp. In addition, the domestic port inventory maintains a trend of destocking, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. However, downstream market buying is more cautious, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the market's demand performance after the holiday. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will mainly fluctuate and wait and see.
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