On March 28, the coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from the previous day, down 39.23% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 136.83% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Trend Analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of domestic coke market was stable last week. As of Friday, the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Shanghai are 1,730 RMB/ton and 1,790 RMB/ton respectively; in Xuzhou are 1,700 RMB/ ton and 1,770 RMB/ ton; in Weifang, Shandong are 1,690 RMB/ ton and 1,750 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province are 1,590 RMB/ ton and 1,640 RMB/ ton; the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province are 1,630 RMB/ ton and 1,690 RMB/ ton; in Shenyang, Liaoning Province are 1,660 RMB/ ton and 1,720 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province are 1,700 RMB/ ton and 1,800 RMB/ tonrespectively. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province are 1,680 RMB/ ton and 1,730 RMB/ ton; in Tianjin are 1,700 RMB/ ton and 1,800 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan Province, Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou province and Erdos coke market are 1,830 RMB/ ton, 1,920 RMB/ ton and 1,350 RMB/tonrespectively. The port trade of primary metallurgical coke is about 1,950 RMB/ ton, of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is about 1,850 RMB/ ton, and of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1,750 RMB/ ton.

Import and export: according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 360,000 tons of coke from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons, or 74.21%. The export volume of coke in January February was $90.48 million dollars.

Products: last week, the domestic coke market price was stable, the downstream steel plants gradually resumed work, and the demand for coke rose to a certain extent. Most steel plants mainly purchase on demand. In terms of supply, coking enterprises started to reduce last week, with stable supply. Up to now, the main quotation of quasi first grade CDQ in Shanxi Province is between 1,550-1,650 RMB/ ton. Recently, the stock of the port has increased, and the trading is relatively cold. At present, the quotation of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in the port area is kept at 1,750 RMB/ ton.

Market Forecast

The coke analysts of SunSirs believe that the sufficient supply of coke will last for a period of time in the short term, but because the demand side has not been significantly improved, the coke price is mainly weak consolidation.

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