Price trend                               

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market price has stopped falling and rebounded since mid September. As of September 26th, the average market price in East China was 4,878 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.75% compared to September 11th.

Analysis review

Positive factors such as macro reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have boosted the commodity market, and the recovery of macro atmosphere has caused resonance in the general rise of the commodity market. In addition, international crude oil has fluctuated and strengthened, providing upward support for PTA costs. As of September 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 69.69 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 72.90 US dollars per barrel.

From the perspective of its own supply side, the processing profit in September has been compressed, and multiple PTA units in China have undergone maintenance and load reduction. However, PTA maintenance units have been restarted one after another, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. The operating rate of the domestic industry was around 81%. A 2.5 million ton PTA plant in South China was scheduled for maintenance in October. Considering the high operating rate of PTA capacity, the decrease in processing fees may lead to an increase in unplanned plant maintenance.

Downstream polyester production was slowly increasing, with a seasonal rebound in polyester production rate to over 86% in September. The demand for PTA continued to improve, helping to improve the PTA supply and demand structure. Textile terminals have started pre holiday stocking activities, and the replenishment sentiment has improved. They actively inquired about prices, but remained cautious and maintained a focus on essential needs. Domestic trade orders fell short of expectations, and due to the impact of Christmas and overseas shopping festivals, foreign trade orders may increase.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that driven by relatively warm costs, downstream polyester production may continue to rebound, and demand for PTA will continue to improve. In addition, the warming macro atmosphere has boosted the commodity market, and in the short term, PTA prices may experience a narrow range of stronger adjustments.

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