Last week (3.23-3.27), the price of refined petroleum coke continued to decline. According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1,192.50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week and 1,100.00 RMB/ ton at the end of the week, down 92.50 RMB/ ton, -7.76% in the week.

On March 27, the petroleum coke commodity index was 85.56, down 1.94 points from the previous day, 45.01% from 155.59 (January 25, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and 27.91% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: last week, the delivery of refined petroleum coke was light as a whole, and the inventory pressure of the refinery was high.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $22.63/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $22.60/ barrel at the end of the week, up or down by -0.13%; Brent crude oil was $29.00/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $28.65/ barrel at the end of the week, up or down by -1.21%. Since the collapse of OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia has constantly released the news that production has increased substantially. Russia has actively responded to the war to increase production, and the US shale oil industry has suffered heavy losses. At the same time, affected by the overseas epidemic of COVID-19, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Downstream: Calcined coke pressure falls; downstream enterprises mainly wait and see. Electrolytic aluminum market prices falls, carbon enterprises trading is light. According to the data of SunSirs, as of March 27, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 11,533.33 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there were 5 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities were MTBE (8.96%), LPG (3.20%) and LNG (2.35%). There were 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were fuel oil (-7.81%), petroleum coke (-7.76%), methanol (-5.29%). This week's average was -0.5%.

Market Forecast

SunSirs’ Analysts predict that the market price of ground refined petroleum coke continued to fall last week, mainly due to the resumption of coking units of local refining enterprises, and the increase of production of PetroChina and SINOPEC enterprises, the increase of market supply, abundant inventory, and limited downstream operating rate, low demand. The price decline of prebaked anode in April is not clear, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that ground refined petroleum coke will continue to fall The price may continue to decline in the near future, and the price range may be around 950-1,100 RMB/ ton.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.