According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 23rd to 27th, MTBE prices fell from 5,537 RMB/ton to 5,437 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.81% during the period, a month on month drop of 12.83%, and a year-on-year drop of 32.60%. The domestic MTBE market trend is weak, mainly affected by the significant decline in related gasoline raw materials such as 89 #, and the trend of various gasoline components is weak. The MTBE market performance is mainly weak due to this impact.

Cost aspect: In terms of crude oil, international oil prices have fallen, with the main negative factors being weak economic data in the Eurozone, market concerns about demand prospects, and the expected continued recovery of Libyan crude oil supply. Additionally, the impact of US hurricanes on crude oil production has weakened. As of September 26th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.09 per barrel.

On the demand side: In terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, while the refined oil market continues to be weak. Refinery oil prices have frequently fallen, mainly due to insufficient terminal demand leading to slow inventory digestion by social units. Middle and downstream merchants have conservative purchasing operations, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Shenghong Refining and Chemical's new plant has started construction, while Debao Road, Shenchi, and Chengtai plants have been shut down. However, the start of the Huntsman plant continues to affect production, resulting in an increase in plant operating rates. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on September 26th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $27.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $721.49-723.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $8/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $845.74-846.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $13.99/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $890.33-890.69/ton (250.80-250.90 cents/gallon).

The future forecast is approaching the National Day holiday, and manufacturers will mainly focus on actively stocking up before the holiday. At the same time, there is a high possibility of a weak trend in crude oil, which is difficult to form positive support for the MTBE market. During the period of restricted access to hazardous chemicals on highways, market transactions may weaken. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market will continue to be weak in the short term.

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